USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD rose to 1.3251 last week but reversed from there. As noted before, price actions from 1.2460 is seen as a corrective move. It could have completed at 1.3251 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3311. Deeper decline would…

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s fall last week suggests that rebound from 109.20 has completed at 118.45 already. The rejection from 55 days EMA maintains medium term bearishness. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 109.20/110.81 support zone. Break will target…

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP stayed in the consolidation pattern from 0.8626 short term top last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 0.8116 resistance turned su…

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF dropped sharply last week and intraday bias is cautiously on the downside this week with focus on 1.0792 support. Firm break there will indicate completion of the corrective rebound from 1.0620. In that case, further decline should be seen to r…

The Weekly Bottom Line

Appropriately for the dog days of summer, there was plenty for markets to chew on this week. U.S. economic news was generally mixed. And, a highly anticipated Bank of Japan decision ultimately fell short of market expectations.

First, the bad news. Th…

Americas Roundup: Dollar Tumbles on Tepid Second Quarter Growth, Oil Ends July With Worst Monthly Loss for Wti in a Year-July

Market Roundup

•    US Q2 GDP rises 1.2% vs 2.6% forecast, Q1 revised down to 0.8%.

•    Consumer spending +4.2%, inventories fall for 1st time since 2011 weighs on growth.

•    US labor costs rise 0.6% in Q2, wages +0.6% vs 0.7% previous.

•    Chicago PMI doesn’t fall as much as expected, 55.8 vs 54.0 forecast.

•    University of Michigan expectations misses 77.8 v 79.5 forecast, 1-yr inflation 2.7% from 2.8% previous.

•    Fed’s Williams: US economy in a good position, expects to raise rates over coming years.

•    Fed’s Williams: Monetary policy not the sole explanation for low rate environment globally.

•    Fed’s Williams: Global spillovers now a bigger consideration for US rates.

•    Fed’s Kaplan: Fed making ‘sluggish’ progress toward objectives, normalizing policy challenging.

•    ECB approves rescue plan for Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena (sources).

•    Oil prices reverse early losses, traders cite profit taking after the week-long selloff.

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

•    02:00 Japan Nikkei Mfg PMI Jul 49-previous

•    23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index Jul 51.80- previous

•    01:00 China NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Jul 53.70- previous

•    01:00 China NBS Manufacturing PMI* Jul forecast 50, 50.00- previous

•    01:45 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final Jul forecast 48.7, 48.60- previous

Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•    No Significant Events

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1140 levels and currently trading at 1.1178 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1197 and hit lows at 1.1149 levels. Euro rose against the dollar on Friday after disappointing U.S. economic growth data caused traders to scale back expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the next few months. Gross domestic product (GDP), the government’s broadest economic gauge, grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter after rising by a downwardly revised 0.8 percent pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The U.S. currency’s decline was also due to the strength of the yen, after the Bank of Japan under whelmed investors by expanding monetary stimulus through only a modest increase in purchases of exchange-traded funds. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, dropped 1.22 percent to 96.566, the lowest level since July 5.

GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.3168 currently trading at 1.3221 levels. It reached session high at 1.3001 and hit low at 1.3168 levels. Sterling jumped higher against the dollar on Friday, as selling pressure increased on dollar after downbeat Gross domestic product eroded expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rate in the near future. Sterling was also supported by the view that Bank of England in the next week meeting will cut interest rate for the first time since 2009. British consumer morale suffered its sharpest drop in more than 26 years after last month’s decision by voters to leave the European Union, according to figures that are likely to embolden Bank of England policymakers to take action next week. Business surveys overnight offered a mixed picture. A survey of manufacturers from industry group EEF showed business confidence dropped in factories across Britain, particularly in south-east England and Wales. Sterling edged up 0.3 percent against dollar on Friday to $1.3220. Against the euro, it was flat at 84.13 pence.

USD/CAD is supported at 1.3000 levels and is trading at 1.3050 levels. It has made session high at 1.3186 and lows at 1.3001 levels. The Canadian dollar firmed against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil rose and a new property transfer tax in Vancouver loomed, while data showed the U.S. economy grew far less than expected offset weak domestic data. Oil prices recovered after a week-long selloff but still finished the month nearly 15 percent lower. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 46 cents at $41.60 a barrel. British Columbia has introduced a new 15-percent property transfer tax on foreign real estate buyers in Vancouver, one of a series of new measures geared at increasing affordability in the city’s red-hot housing market. The new tax takes effect on Aug. 2.Canada’s economy suffered its biggest one-month contraction in May since March 2009 as wildfires in northern Alberta caused a sharp drop in oil extraction, reinforcing expectations that the economy shrank in the second quarter. The Canadian dollar ended at C$1.3056 to the greenback, or 76.59 U.S. cents, stronger than Thursday’s close of C$1.3161, or 75.98 U.S. cents.

USD/JPY is supported around 101.90 levels and currently trading at 102.06 levels. It peaked to hit session high at 103.36 and made session lows at 102.00 levels. The safe-haven yen rose sharply against US dollar on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the second quarter, while the Japanese yen soared after the Bank of Japan’s stimulus plans underwhelmed investors. The Bank of Japan expanded stimulus on Friday by doubling purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF), yielding to pressure from the government and financial markets for bolder action, but disappointing investors who had set their hearts on more audacious measures. The central bank, however, said it will conduct a thorough assessment of the effects of negative interest rates and its massive asset-buying programme in September, suggesting that a major overhaul of its stimulus programme may be forthcoming. The yen soared after the BOJ disappointed investors who had expected bolder measures to stimulate growth and raise inflation in Japan’s ailing economy. The yen jumped 3.05 percent against the dollar to 102.04 yen, the highest level since July 11.

Equities Recap

European shares rose on Friday helped by some encouraging company updates, with Kering gaining after its fashion brand Gucci recorded strong sales.

UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.5 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.67 percent, Germany’s Dax ended up by 0.5 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.3 percent.

Wall Street rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 index hitting a record intraday high for the seventh time this month as gains in technology heavyweights Alphabet and Amazon more than made up for losses in energy shares.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.15 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.16 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.13 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury prices jumped on Friday, with benchmark yields touching two-week lows, as disappointing U.S. economic growth data caused traders to scale back expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the next few months.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were up 17/32 in price for a yield of 1.451 percent, the lowest since July 12.

The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to traders’ views on Fed policy, was down 5.5 basis points at 0.663 percent, its lowest in over a week.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose to its highest level in nearly three weeks on Friday after much slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth weighed on the dollar, and was on track for a second monthly gain in a row.

Spot gold, down initially, reached its highest level since July 12 at $1,353.90 an ounce after the U.S. data and was up 1.4 percent at $1,353.44 by 2:59 p.m. EDT (1859 GMT).U.S. gold settled up 1.3 percent at $1,349 per ounce.

Oil prices steadied on Friday after touching three-month lows during a week-long selloff fueled by a persistent global supply glut, bringing the monthly decline to nearly 15 percent, the biggest monthly loss in a year for U.S. crude.

The September Brent contract, which expired as the front-month, settled at $42.46 a barrel, down 0.6 percent on the day and 14.5 percent lower on the month. That was the biggest monthly drop for Brent since December.

Brent’s more actively traded October contract rose 30 cents to settle at $43.53, after hitting $42.52, its lowest since April 19.

WTI’s front-month contract, September, rose 46 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $41.60 a barrel, after slipping below $41 for the first time since April 20. The contract notched a monthly decline of 14 percent, the biggest for a WTI front-month since July 2015.
 

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit – June 2016

Data on sectoral deployment of bank credit collected on a monthly basis from select 46 scheduled commercial banks, accounting for about 95 per cent of the total non-food credit deployed by all scheduled commercial banks, for the month of June 201…

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