Americas Roundup: Dollar Surrenders Gains on Worries Over U.s. Political Uncertainty, Oil Ends at One-Month Low on Opec Doubts,

Market Roundup

•    President Obama says FBI director Comey not trying to influence election, has confidence in him. •    US consumer spending +0.5% v 0.4% forecast, ends Q3 w/strong momentum. •    US Sept core PCE price index rises 1.7% y/y unchanged v Aug, PCE price Idx +1.2% v 1% previous. •    Atlanta Fed: GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in Q4 2016 is 2.7% on October 31. •    BoE’s Carney says to extend stay at BoE by one year until June 2019. •    German retail sales post sharpest fall (-1.4%) in two years in Sept, owing to warm weather. •    Oil slides as non-OPEC nations demur on output limit plan. •    Share of negative-yielding euro zone government bonds falls to 45 pct – Tradeweb.

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•    22:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index Oct 49.80-previous •    00:30 Japan Nikkei Mfg PMI Oct 51.70-previou •    01:00 China NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Oct 53.70-previou •    01:00 China NBS Manufacturing PMI* Oct forecast 50.4, 50.40-previou •    01:45 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final Oct forecast 50.2, 50.10-previous Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT) •    23:50 Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision (no change expected) •    03:30 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting (no change expected)

Currency Summaries EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.0935 levels and currently trading at 1.0977 levels. The pair has made session high at 1.0977 and hit lows at 1.0935 levels. The euro inched higher against US dollar on Monday as disclosure that the FBI was investigating more emails as part of a probe of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email system weighted on greenback, causing fresh uncertainty over the Democratic candidate's presumed lead in the presidential election over Republican rival Donald Trump. News of the probe hurt the dollar since Clinton is viewed as the candidate of the status quo, and a win for the Democratic candidate in next week's U.S. presidential election is generally seen by analysts as likely to be positive for the dollar. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last mostly flat at 98.373 after gaining as much as 0.4 percent earlier. The euro , was last trading at  $1.0977 to dollar. GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.2120 and currently trading at 1.2237 levels. It reached session high at 1.2247 and hit low at 1.2140 levels. British pound rose against dollar on Monday as pound was boosted after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he would stay in his job until the end of June 2019. Carney, who has come under heavy criticism from pro-Brexit politicians for warning before June's referendum of the economic risks of voting to leave the EU, had the option to stay at the Bank until 2021.But the Canadian decided against serving the full eight years available to him. The pound inched up to $1.2248 after the news Mark Carney will serve as full term governor of the Bank of England. It was last trading at $1.2241. USD/CAD is supported at 1.3365 levels and is trading at 1.3416 levels. It has made session high at 1.3422 and lows at 1.3384 levels. The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as the oil prices declined and dollar surrendered gains on renewed concerns about US election.U.S. crude oil futures settled $1.84 lower at $46.86 a barrel on doubts about OPEC's ability to implement its planned production cuts, with the market further weighed by expectations that the cartel had record output in October. The U.S. dollar surrendered gains to trade little changed against a basket of major currencies on renewed concerns about how the FBI probe might impact the US election. The Canadian dollar was last trading at C$1.3416 to the greenback, or 74.63 U.S. cents, weaker than Friday's close of C$1.3384, or 74.72 U.S. cents. AUD/USD is supported around 0.7566 levels and currently trading at 0.7607 levels. It hit session high at 0.7613 and made session lows at 0.7588 levels. The Australian dollar inched higher against US dollar on Monday ahead of a central bank policy meeting, amid nervousness about the outcome of the U.S. elections. The Australian dollar was last trading at $0.7608, recovering from a two-week low of $0.7558 hit on Friday. Dollar declined late last week after the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation revealed a new probe into the private email use of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, days before the voting day. Investors have tended to see Clinton as the candidate of the status quo, while there is greater uncertainty over what a Donald Trump victory might mean for U.S. foreign policy, international trade deals or the domestic economy.

Equities Recap European equities fell for a sixth straight session on Monday, with energy shares tracking weaker crude oil prices and financial stocks losing ground. UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.4 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.1 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.7 percent. Wall Street was little changed on Monday as investors digested the latest in a spate of large-scale corporate mergers as well as revelations ahead of the impending U.S. presidential election. Dow Jones closed down by 0.10 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.01 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.02 percent. Treasuries Recap Benchmark U.S. Treasuries ended their worst month in almost two years on a firm note on Monday, after falling expectations of central bank accommodation sent sovereign debt yields higher globally this month and made U.S. bonds less attractive to foreigners. Benchmark 10-year notes ended up 4/32 in price to yield 1.83 percent, down from 1.85 percent late Friday. The yields have increased by 14 percent this month, the largest monthly percent rise since February 2015. Two-year note yields, which are most sensitive to interest rate changes, increased by 11 percent this month, its worst performance since August. Commodities Recap Oil prices settled at one-month lows on Monday after dropping over 3 percent on doubts about OPEC's ability to implement its planned production cuts, with the market further weighed by expectations that the cartel had record output in October. Brent's front-month contract, which expires after Monday's session, was down $1.41, or 2.8 percent, at $48.30 a barrel. It hit a low of $47.98 during the day. The more active next-month Brent contracts were down $2.03, or 4 percent, at $48.65 a barrel. Gold steadied on Monday, coming off lows as the dollar pared gains, though concerns over the outlook for the U.S. election and Federal Reserve policy kept the metal pinned near the previous session's highest level in nearly four weeks. Spot gold was up 0.03 percent at $1,276.34 an ounce by 3:10 p.m. EDT (1910 GMT), hovering below Friday's peak of $1,284.14 and on track to close October down 3.1 percent. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.3 percent at $1,273.10.


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