Issuance of 35 days Cash Management Bills under Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS)

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of the 35 days Government of India Cash Management Bills for a notified amount of ₹ 60,000 crore today, December 05, 2016 using “Multiple Price Auction” method. The bids for the auction should be submitted in electronic format on the Reserve Bank of India Core Banking Solution (E-Kuber) system between 2 pm and 3 pm on Monday, December 05, 2016. Result will be announced on the same day. Payment by successful bidders will be on T+0 i.e. on Monday, December 05, 2016.

The Cash Management Bills will have the generic character of Treasury Bills and their sale will be subject to the terms and conditions specified in the General Notification. F.No 4 (8)-W & M/2015 dated May 26, 2016 issued by Government of India and as amended from time to time. The Non-Competitive Bidding Scheme is not extended to Cash Management Bills.

Ajit Prasad
Assistant Adviser

Press Release : 2016-2017/1408

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Weekly analysis- Elliott waves for Forex correlation analysis – Bearish Engulfing Candle in Gold

Gold Weekly review: Weekly review: During the previous trading month, Gold’s monthly candle opened at 1276.81, went as high as 1337.19 but ended up closing at 1173.12. The previous months candle is a perfect bearish engulfing candle and will likely push the price further to the lowerside. In the meantime, we’re waiting for minor upward retracements towards 1232.08 to give us low risk sell opportunities. Expect a similar wave count in Silver, these two commodities will have a similar price action during this month, as long as Gold is bearish remain short in silver. These two commodities have a strong positive correlation of up to +89% and will have a parallel price action during this trading weekTrade Recommendations:Expect a possible bearish price movements towards the lower trendline.Silver weekly review:Weekly review:Following the massive drop below the daily demand level 17.25, on 14th November 2016, the metal traded short but is currently retracing back to this level. We expect the current upward rally to be a mere correction of the impulsive wave (a) and should not go beyond 17.25, from where we’ll be looking to sell the next motive wave (c). Any clear advancements above 17.37 may invalidate a possible rebound from this zone and could culminate into a possible bullish wave count towards 18.54 and possibly higher. In the meantime, this bullish rally is highly unlikely since gold, a positively correlated commodity is pretty much bearish and will likely trade in the lower ranges during this week. And since gold basically drags silver with it, any bearish movements in gold will attract a similar move in silver. Only buy or sell silver if gold is giving the same signal.Trade Recommendations:Wait for a clear rebound from 17.25 to go short with an ideal target at 15.75Crude Oil weekly review:Weekly Review: During the previous trading week, instead of going short as forecasted, the crude oil retraced to the upper side into our objective weekly resistance level 51.96 and is currently stalling there. As long as the price remains below this level, we expect a possible rebound from this level to go short, otherwise, there could be consolidations around this level before breaking above it. In the meantime, we choose to sit on the sidelines and wait for a clear breakout above 51.96 to go long towards 61.45. This upward rally is highly likely since the previous week’s candle pretty much engulfed the previous week’s candle, week ending 25th Nov 2016, and will likely push the price above 51.95.  Any clear rebound from this level may invalidate the anticipated upward rally and could culminate into a possible bearish price movements towards 42.89.
Trade Recommendations: Remain flat for now but wait for a clear breakout above 51.96 to go long with an ideal target at 61.45.
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Weekly analysis- Forex Fundamental Analysis – S&P500 History Repeats

The forecast for the week 5 – 9 December:XAU/USD:Precious metal demonstrates weakness for four trading weeks in a row and, in my opinion, there should be a technical correction for two reasons. First of all, the US stock market, to which gold has a close inverse correlation, got to its historic high and now it is hard to continue further upward movement. Oil also demonstrates rapid growth of quotations (Brent + 12.7%) after Vienna OPEC summit, that promotes growth of inflationary expectations in the global economy, and this is, in its turn, positive for gold. Nevertheless, rapid growth of XAU/USD quotes is not expected today because there is FOMC meeting ahead, and investors may start selling gold again. I buy at 1170/1160 and set take profit signal at 1190.Brent:I expect a moderate decline of oil quotations because of general profit taking on long positions. Oil violently reacted to OPEC’s decision to cut oil production to 32.5 millions barrels. Now there is euphoria on market, usually such periods do not show strong sales. However, I believe the minor correction is still possible, since the US dollar is still around its 13-year high. The US currency’s influence on oil pricing is quite strong and dollar is not going to retreat yet. Now the market will pause and wait for the outcome of OPEC meeting with countries not included in the cartel. The meeting is to be held at the end of the week. I sell at 54,70/55,50 and set take profit signal at 53,10.S&P500:On Monday growth of quotations might be expected triggered by the ISM publication of positive data on business activity in the service sector. According to CB November data, this is suggested by a significant increase in consumer activity. This week more important news from US is not expected. Energy stocks will continue to be in demand because of high oil prices. Will their be a Christmas rally this year? I don’t think so, market is near a historic high, and given the significant growth of profitability on US Treasury bonds, investors will continue to close long positions. There was the same situation last year, when we had a rise of profitability of Treasury bonds during the first half of December, FED raised its interest rate by 0.25%, while S&P500 index declined. Will the story repeat itself this time? I think so, the chances are high. I sell at 2200/2217 and set take profit signal at 2179.

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Elliott waves for Forex correlation analysis – Bears eyeing a break below 1.04568

EURUSD – Up Wave Analysis: Earlier today, Euro fell drastically and will likely continue short. We are waiting for minor retracements to the just broken immediate trend line to go short with our first target at 1.05302. Any clear developments below this target, 1.05302, will push the price further to the lower side but should not go below 1.04537 during this intraday. This downward rally is highly anticipated since the previous month’s candle, November 2016, pretty much engulfed the August’s candle. Thus, during this month, we expect a possible bearish wave count towards 1.9764 and possible lower. Expect a similar wave count in EUR/CHF, EUR/HKD and an exact opposite price action in USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Trade Recommendations: Remain short with your first target at 1.0084
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Elliott waves for Forex correlation analysis – Trade The US Dollar alongside Gold

USDJPY – Down Wave Analysis: For the past three weeks, usd/jpy and been rising relentlessly and is still bullish on both the monthly and weekly charts. The previous week’s candle is a strong bullish continuation candle and will likely push the price towards the 61.8 Fib level and possibly higher. The current downward rally seen on the 4Hour chart is a mere corrective move and should not go beyond the 50.0 Fib level from where we’ll be looking for low risk buy opportunities. Ideally, from the weekly chart set up, we expect a possible bullish wave count towards 123.58 and even higher to 124.00. Expect a exact opposite price action in Gold. Gold and usd/jpy have an exact price action in their monthly charts and will likely move in opposite directions during this month. Trade Recommendations: Remain long with an ultimate target at 124.00
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Money Market Operations as on December 02, 2016


(Amount in ₹ billion, Rate in Per cent)

MONEY MARKETS @
Volume Wtd.Avg.Rate Range
(One Leg)
A. Overnight Segment (I+II+III+IV) 30.05 5.74 5.00-7.00
     I. Call Money 9.18 5.81 5.00-6.20
     II. CBLO 20.87 5.71 5.00-7.00
     III. Market Repo 0.00  
     IV. Repo in Corporate Bond
0.00
 
B. Term Segment      
     I. Notice Money** 172.50 6.08 4.75-6.25
     II. Term Money@@ 3.78 5.90-6.35
     III. CBLO
1,499.74 6.06 5.00-6.15
     IV. Market Repo 475.81 6.07 5.25-7.00
     V. Repo in Corporate Bond 1.25 8.00 8.00-8.00
RBI OPERATIONS@
Auction Date Tenor (Days) Maturity Date Amount Outstanding Current Rate /
Cut off Rate
C. Liquidity Adjustment Facility
   (i) Repo (Fixed Rate) 02/12/2016 3 05/12/2016 27.41 6.25
   (ii) Repo (Variable rate) 22/11/2016 14 06/12/2016 4.50 6.26
  25/11/2016 14 09/12/2016 12.18 6.26
  29/11/2016 14 13/12/2016 52.75 6.26
  02/12/2016 14 16/12/2016 8.50 6.27
   (iii) Reverse Repo (Fixed rate) 02/12/2016 3 05/12/2016 188.66 5.75
   (iv) Reverse Repo (Variable rate) 15/11/2016 28 13/12/2016 498.25 6.24
  16/11/2016 91 15/02/2017 500.05 6.24
  16/11/2016 21 07/12/2016 255.75 6.24
  17/11/2016 56 12/01/2017 141.75 6.24
  17/11/2016 21 08/12/2016 105.65 6.24
  21/11/2016 23 14/12/2016 200.06 6.23
  21/11/2016 15 06/12/2016 200.06 6.24
D. Marginal Standing Facility 02/12/2016 3 05/12/2016 0.35 6.75
E. Standing Liquidity Facility Availed from RBI $     12.19  
RESERVE POSITION @
F. Cash Reserves Position  of Scheduled Commercial Banks
(i) Cash balances with RBI  as on # 29/11/2016 9,113.14  
(ii) Average daily  cash reserve  requirement  for the fortnight ending 09/12/2016 7,662.42  
G. Government of India Surplus Cash Balance Reckoned for Auction as on ¥ 02/12/2016 77.93  
@ Based on RBI / CCIL/ FIMMDA Data
– Not Applicable / No Transaction
** Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 2 to 14 days tenor
@@ Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 15 days to one year tenor
# The figure for the cash balances with RBI on Sunday is same as that of the previous day (Saturday).
$ Includes refinance facilities extended by RBI
¥ As per the Press Release No. 2014-2015/1971 dated March 19, 2015
Ajit Prasad
Assistant Adviser
Press Release : 2016-2017/1405

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Liquidity Adjustment Facility: Fixed Rate Reverse Repo Operations

The result of the RBI Fixed Rate Reverse Repo Operations held on December  03, 2016 is as under: Amount (face value in ₹ Billion) Item 2 day Reverse Repo Auction …

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Liquidity Adjustment Facility: Fixed Rate Repo Operations

The result of the RBI Fixed Rate Repo Operations held on December 03, 2016 is as under: Amount (face value in ₹ Billion) Item 2 day Repo Operations 6.25% Fixed Rate …

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Liquidity Adjustment Facility: Fixed Rate Reverse Repo Operations

The result of the RBI Fixed Rate Reverse Repo Operations held on December 02, 2016 is as under: Amount (face value in ₹ Billion) Item 3 day Reverse Repo Auction …

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Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Monday’s preview

EURUSD – UpDaily chart: correction potential still holds in 1.0754 (middle Bollinger band), from here bears might try to touch lower band (1.0389). If price gets to the upper envelope, a rise towards 1.1117 (upper Bollinger band) might be possible Н4: the pair is locally consolidated in the horizontal corridor 1.0576-1.0691 (Bollinger bands range). ADX is weak and corrective. Н1: more localized flat range is 1.0632-1.0691. This is where Monday trading range seems to be. ADX is growing but it is still far from active range. Expectations: Core scenario – flat within 1.0632-1.0691 Alternative scenario – breakout towards 1.0754 Solutions: buy in the range from 1.0632 to 1.0691
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